There are very few curious members who give themselves the means to do their own research. Some have asked me to open my own thread about futures and my algorithms, but given the way things are going on here, and given the behavior of some, I think there is very little chance I want to do it I do not want to list in detail the differences here because this is not the subject of the threadĪnd I do not want to bother those who follow the strategy presented or disrespect the OP. Regarding your first question, the differences are of course present. Would you agree with my findings and conclusion? I know this is heavy and loaded :-) We have to move towards centralized markets and play in the real supply/demand market. There is tremendous amount of intelligence to be found here and still have yet to find success also reiterates my conclusion that retail fx trading is just a waste of time. That coupled with all the manipulation techniques I knew of and ones that our friend FractalFreak is showing simply makes me re-affirm the fact why so many lose in the retail spot FX space. Decay seems to be the inevitable factor consistent in all my findings. Every attempt simply resulted in "makret is favorable now and about" and "decay is just around the corner". I have done immense studies on stop placements and margin calls and account behaviour when position size is increased or when you take bigger risk or when you use small TP orders or when you try to trap the market or follow the market etc etc and I simply could not find any so called consistency in "edge performance". That is what makes me a non-believer of "price action". There are simply not that many out there in the retail spot FX space who can make this claim and those who really are (couple I know of) are based on the trader themselves and not the specific strategy they use. I will only believe in someone having an "edge" if they can show solid consistent performance of 2-3+ yrs. I saw a Monty Hall model one time on here that looked pretty interesting but never figured out what exactly was going on. I also have not been clever enough to come up with my own models that would do something like that. Unfortunately, I have never met a soul who could point me to that paper or study. This is just in my experience though, if someone wants to point me to a paper showing the opposite to be true, I would love it. In regards to gaining an edge purely for a risk model, I know it works with certain parameters, but they are usually unattainable and if they are, the return is extremely small relative to the equity, like microscopic. mzvega has some really good posts on this. Regarding EHM, the market is efficient in only one dimension if that makes sense.
So if I win 93.5% of the time and my spread cost is 2%, I have a 1.5% edge. So with the 4 pip tp and 36 sl, my edge is my win rate percentage based on the BE percentage of the r:r setup. When I say edge I mean the probability of the outcome being more than it should be if it were random. I think "trade frequency" is a very important factor in performance measurement which many ignore imo. and "slow" the loses when market is just churning and going nowhere. If you agree with this point then it also means, we MUST gain as much as, as fast as we can, during favorable market conditions. such a robust strategy will only work fabulously during fat/heavy tailed distributions which is where most money is made. and here, I am not referring to random entries. even if you don't know or have an edge in entry, positive expectancy can be derived with a robust strategy. It's odds can be increased based on devising a strategy and executing that strategy using whatever RM, MM parameters of choice edge results in the application of a setup with a stated statistical probability. whatever edge that might exists in the price feed is only limited to it's discovery with no long term consistent positive expectancy derived from it. By this I mean, I am a subscriber of "Efficient Market Hypothesis". either on a two-dimensional chart or price vs time data stream. I say, there is no edge in the entry "setup" (of price over time). Perhaps a little more on edge since you are a "facts and data" guy like me.
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